Selection of Optimal Management Option

A hypothetical decision selection exercise is described to illustrate how the estimated influence diagram is used within the EMS to manage cheetah viability. The best management option for the Central region is to be found for a 20 year planning horizon. Hence, the decision nodes are set as follows: t = 2020, q = Central, and m set in turn to each of its values.

A Monte Carlo estimate of the expected loss under each option is then computed from 100 simulated realizations drawn from the influence diagram (see Table 9). Standard deviations of the simulated loss values are also reported.

The option that minimizes the expected loss is increase anti-poaching enforcement. The standard deviations indicate this expected loss is significantly lower at the $\alpha = .1$ level than those of the other options.

***** [Table 9 about here] *****