Thomas M. Holbrook, Editor/ Department of Political Science/University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

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Editorial Board

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April 1998, Vol. 26, No. 2

Contents:

State-Level Public Opinion Polls as Predictors of Presidential Election Results: The 1996 Race

Jeffrey E. Cohen-Fordham University

Forecasting presidential election results with polls prior to the election has become an important activity and test of voting theory. Such efforts are hampered by the few number of observations, however. In 1996, state level polls for most of the states have become available. A model to account for state-level presidential election results is built using these polls and other commonly used variables. The model performs quite well, suggesting that these polls, which are mostly commercial, can profitably be employed in future modeling and perhaps forecasting efforts. However, the questions used in these polls, like trial heats and positive-negative name recognition are not well understood and thus should be examined more closely with an eye on theory building and conceptualization.

Money or the Machine: Money and Votes in Chicago Aldermanic Elections

Anthony Gierzynski-University of Vermont, Paul Kleppner-Northern Illinois University, and Jim Lewis-Chicago Urban League

This article presents results of a study of the impact of money on Chicago city council elections in 1991 and 1995. Chicago, with its reputation for strong party organizations, would be the last place most people would expect to find campaign expenditures playing an important role. To our surprise, however, the results of the analysis indicate that campaign spending is related to candidates' vote share. Even Chicago, it seems, has not escaped the trend toward cash-based, candidate-centered campaigns.

Witnesses for the Revolution

William T. Gormley, Jr.-Georgetown University

The Republican Revolution reshaped many congressional practices, including the mix of interest groups testifying before House committees, in ways that promote partisan responsiveness. A comparison of the 104^th and 103^rd Congresses reveals significantly more testimony in 1995 by groups sympathetic to the Revolution, less testimony by other groups. Comparisons of individual committees, although more ambiguous, also reveal differences between traditionally partisan and bipartisan committees.

The Effects of Local Economic Development Efforts: An Empirical Assessment of Expenditures on Income Growth in North Carolina Counties

Kenneth A. Wink -Western Carolina University, and Steven F. Eller-Southwestern North Carolina Planning and Economic Development Commission, Western Carolina University

This research examines the effect of local expenditures on income growth in North Carolina counties. Pooled data from all 100 counties in the state for the years 1981-1990 are analyzed, and empirical tests are conducted to ascertain the relationship between the expenditures and the effect on the dependent variable under a number of time lags. The most important finding is that county paved highway mileage per capita has a significant positive effect on income growth under a number of model specifications. In addition, there is a consistently positive relationship between county per student spending for primary and secondary education and income growth that obtains statistical significance under some model specifications. The findings also indicate that change in county income growth is heavily affected by state income growth.

Racial Segregation and Voter Turnout in Urban America

Kurt Schlichting-Fairfield University, Peter Tuckel-City University of New York, and Richard Maisel-New York University

This study examines the effect of hypersegregation on turnout in recent elections in Bridgeport, Connecticut and Baltimore, Maryland. A Geographical Information System (GIS) is used to assign each registered voter in both cities his or her census block group via geocoding. The individual-level voting data are then aggregated up to the block group level and merged with a subset of block group-level 1990 census variables. A set of statistical analyses are next performed to measure the contextual effect of the racial composition of surrounding areas on voter turnout at the block group level. The results show that after controlling for income, racially homogeneous block groups (Black or non-Black) situated in surrounding areas that mirror their own racial composition have significantly higher levels of political participation than corresponding block groups situated in surrounding areas that do not reflect their racial composition.

Black and Latino Socioeconomic and Political Competition: Has a Decade Made a Difference?

Paula D. McClain-University of Virginia, and

Steven C. Tauber-University of South Florida

Using 1980s data McClain and Karnig (1990) examined the extent of socioeconomic and political competition between Blacks and Latinos in 49 cities that had a population with at least 10 percent Blacks and 10 percent Latinos. That research found a positive correlation between Blacks and Latinos on socioeconomic indicators, but it discovered the emergence of political and socioeconomic competition in the 45 cities from the earlier data set that still met McClain and Karnig's criteria. The authors have found that while there is still a positive covariation on socioeconomic indicators, the intensity of this relationship has diminished. On the political dimension, Black and Latino competition may now be displaced by increasing competition between Whites and Latinos. We conclude tentatively that a decade has made a difference in terms of socioeconomic competition between Blacks and Hispanics.

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July 1998, Vol. 26, No. 3

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October 1998, Vol. 26, No. 4

Contents:

Does Bringing Out the Candidate Bring Out the Votes? The Effects of Nominee Campaigning in Presidential Elections.

Jeffrey M. Jones-SUNY-Stony Brook

Scholars find that party mobilization efforts reliably increase voter turnout. Although many different forms of mobilization have been studied, one of the oldest-candidate campaigning-has not. This article examines the mobilizing potential of candidate campaign appearances in presidential elections. Analyzing aggregate election returns, I show that campaign visits can measurably increase both turnout and partisan vote percentages. The effects are often contingent, though, on how frequently candidates visit a particular area and on the timing of the campaign visits.

Why Do the News Media Cover Certain Candidates More Than Others? The Antecedents of State and National News Coverage in the 1992 Presidential Nomination Campaign.

Audrey A. Haynes and Sarah G. Murray-Georgia State University

This article explores two approaches to campaign coverage in order to estimate their relative importance to state and national media coverage levels during presidential nomination campaigns: the horse race account and the campaign account. Using news coverage data from a sample of 21 state newspapers, three national newspapers, and the ABC World News Tonight, multivariate models of state and national candidate news coverage levels are estimated. The findings, while confirming the conventional wisdom that candidates who do well gain more media attention, also suggest that candidate activity can make a difference and that candidate factors can have a significant influence, whereas structural factors, such as the number of candidates competing, appear to have little influence on how the national and state media determine their distribution of coverage when other factors are present. Moreover, the state news media are strongly influenced by performance factors, but these are primarily through the priming influence of the national news media.

Explaining Government Productivity

Andrew J. Taylor-North Carolina State University

This article revises our understanding of the conditions under which the federal government produces important legislation. I reevaluate and only mildly vindicate Mayhew's findings about the effect public opinion has on the productivity of the federal government. By revealing the size of the nation's debt to be an important determinant of productivity, however, I suggest that Mayhew's work overlooked the relationship between fiscal conditions and policy output. I also examine empirically the claims of Krehbiel's theoretical work about gridlock.

Statutory Construction and Congressional Response

Joseph Ignagni-University of Texas at Arlington

James Meernik and Kimi Lynn King-University of North Texas

To understand why Congress is prompted to react to Supreme Court federal statutory construction decisions, we examine two different explanations of this phenomenon. The first focuses on the role political actors, such as the president, the public, and interest groups, and salient issues play in the legislative process. The second explanation is based on the work of scholars who argue that ideological differences between the Supreme Court and Congress are important in provoking legislative reactions to Court rulings. The results of our analysis indicate that public opinion, salient cases, and Court invitations to Congress to revise its rulings are statistically significant predictors of some minimal level of congressional reaction, whereas the position of the president and partisan control of government help determine when the Congress is able to pass decision modification legislation. Ideological differences between the High Court and congressional committees and the full chamber are generally statistically insignificant factors.

Wavering Equilibriums: Subsystem Dynamics and Agenda Control

Jeff Worsham-West Virginia University

A wavering equilibrium theory of subsystem politics is developed to distinguish between three types of subsystem politics. I suggest that subsystem players' ability to control the policy agenda varies with changes in subsystem politics. This article uses correlation analysis with data on bill sponsorship and referral to examine the impact of subsystem variation on policy making in three subsystems. I find that subsystem political variation is associated with changes in subsystem players' ability to control bill introduction and referral.

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January 1999, Vol. 27, No. 1-Special Issue, "Whither the Parties?"

John C. Green-University of Akron, Co-Editor

Contents:

Whither the Parties? The Volatile Nineties and the Future of the Party System

John C. Green - Bliss Institute, University of Akron

Introduction

Political Parties in a Critical Era

John H. Aldrich - Duke University

American political history is ordinarily divided into categories called party systems. Each system contains within it a broad similarity, and apparent "equilibrium" or "politics as usual" that distinguishes it from all others. The generational regularity of the transition from one party system to the next is remarkable. Or, at least it was until the critical era expected in the 1960s apparently failed to materialize. Richard Niemi and I earlier argued that, in fact, there was a critical era in the 1960s, but it failed to be noticed because it was not a partisan realignment, bringing a new voting majority to power. Nonetheless, the change in public opinion, leadership, institutional structure, and policy agenda and coalition were pervasive. In this paper, I build on the argument that the 1960s was a critical era. If it was, then we should be reaching the end of the consequent sixth party system, moving toward (or actually being in) a new critical era, leading toward the seventh party system. The dramatic electoral events of the 1990s provide a prima facie case that we may be encountering the end of politics as usual. The analysis in this paper fleshes out that argument. Particular components considered include the change in electoral fortunes noted above. The generational transition in presidential leadership and the nearly as dramatic change in congressional leadership are also considered. The rise of the South in the Republican congressional party, in its sheer numbers, its source of leadership, and its impact on the party's agenda is also examined. Notice is taken as well of changes in electoral behavior, particularly recent increases in partisan identification and strength of attachment, declines in split-ticket voting, and the weakening of the electoral strength of incumbency. Collectively, this evidence suggests that the 1992 and especially 1994 and 1996 elections show signs of the beginnings of a critical era.

The Passing of Realignment and the Advent of the "Base-Less" Party System

Daniel M. Shea - Lafayette College

This article is an attempt to merge two of the more significant developments in recent American politics: the failure of our system to undergo a partisan based realignment and the advent of service-oriented party organizations. Whereas traditional explanations of the "missing realignment" center around the attitudes of voters and/or the activities of candidates, this article suggests the parties are to blame. That is, the goals and activities of contemporary party organizations often frustrate voter attachment to parties, as well as the development of coherent platforms. Critical realignments have become a thing of the past. Yet, we have moved into a new era characterized by aggressive, national organizations, which I dub the "base-less" party system.

Emerging Party Cleavages in the House of Representatives, 1962-1996

Jeffrey M. Stonecash and Nicole R. Lindstrom - Maxwell School, Syracuse University

Income has the potential to divide people politically. Most attempts to assess the impact of income focus on individual-level analysis. Representatives, however, are elected in districts, which have varying compositions of constituents. To assess the connection between income and party in congressional elections, we need to focus on how the income composition of districts differs and how partisan outcomes are related to these variations. This analysis assesses that relationship and how it has changed in recent decades. The focus is on U.S. House districts from 1962 to 1996. First, the diversity of U.S. House districts over time is examined. The diversity has increased since 1962. The relationship of district income and party outcomes is then examined by region. Regions are used because political change has evolved differently in the South and the North. Since 1962, income has emerged as a significant source of political divisions in the South and North, whereas the remainder of the country has not developed such a relationship. Finally, we analyze the 1994 and 1996 congressional elections. The results of these elections suggest that the relationship of income to party continues to be significant, but the 1994 election attenuated the relationship.

"Culture Wars" in the American Party System: Religious and Cultural Change Among Partisan Activists Since 1972

Geoffrey C. Layman - Vanderbilt University

This article uses surveys of the parties' national convention delegates from 1972 to 1992 to examine the emergence of a religious cleavage between Republican and Democratic activists. The findings indicate that the religious cleavage between the two parties has grown over time, with Republicans becoming more traditionally religious and the Democrats growing more secular and religiously modern. This religious polarization has been associated with a growing polarization on "cultural" issues such as abortion, women's rights, and homosexual rights. Finally, the article demonstrates that the impact of religious change within the parties on interparty differences on cultural issues has been broader than a model focusing only on religious replacement would predict. Not only is religious replacement within the parties occurring, but within religious groups, Democratic activists are becoming more culturally liberal relative to Republican activists.

Electoral Congruence and the Autonomy of American State Party Systems

Tari Renner - Illinois Wesleyan University

This research examines whether electoral incongruence within American state party systems exists between presidential and state-level elections. Recent research by James Gimpel suggests that the states are developing autonomous party systems in which electoral cleavages in statewide races are increasingly dissimilar to those at the national level. In this research, county-level two-party voting patterns are used as measures of the geographic continuity of partisan electoral cleavages for all presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections over the last decade (1986-1996) from the 10 states examined most closely in Gimpel's work. However, a factor analysis of these data fail to confirm two hypotheses implied by this intrastate autonomy phenomenon. A single dominant factor appears to underlie the partisan cleavages in both the Western and Northern states. Consequently, although more variable, the partisan divisions in gubernatorial and senatorial elections are likely to be very similar to the contours of those at the presidential level. There was little evidence that they were being consistently fought on a different electoral plane.

Contemplating Congruence in State Electoral Systems

James G. Gimpel - University of Maryland, College Park

[A response to Renner-see above]

April 1999, Vol. 27, No. 2

Contents:

Competing Redistricting Plans as Evidence of Political Motives: The North Carolina Case

Paul Gronke & J. Matthew Wilson - Duke University

Redistricting is a thoroughly political act, but the political strategies of the various actors often have been lost amid legal and representational arguments. This article looks at one set of actors-state legislators-and examines how they pursue personal and partisan interests during redistricting. Rather than treating legislators as uniform in their preferences, we divide them into two categories: those who are ambitious for higher office and those who are not. These two groups of legislators face dramatically different sets of incentives and constraints, and these differences are reflected by their strategies in the redistricting process. Using North Carolina's 1992 redistricting as exemplar, this article outlines the redistricting debates, describes the interests of the various actors, and presents an analysis of eight redistricting plans using JudgeIt. The findings indicate that members balance individual and partisan interests when proposing plans and that for ambitious legislators, individual ambition generally outweighs partisan loyalty.

The Mobilization of Campaign Activists by the Party Canvass

Peter W. Wielhouwer - Spelman College

This research examines the role of the personal contacting activities of the political parties as mobilizing forces in what Verba and Nie termed "campaign activities." A reformulated rational choice model is discussed in which parties seek to reduce certain avoidable and unavoidable costs associated with political participation. Using data from the 1952 through 1994 American National Election Studies, it is shown that the party contact has been, and continues to be, a major factor in mobilizing campaign activists. Its influence is remarkably robust, maintaining statistical and substantive significance even after controlling for other important factors usually associated with political behavior.

Public Assessments of Gubernatorial Performance: A Comparative State Analysis

Jason A. MacDonald & Lee Sigelman - George Washington University

Scholarly attention to public evaluations of governors has focused almost exclusively on individual voting decisions. Such an approach has allowed scholars to identify the factors that lead voters to support and oppose incumbent governors. However, such analyses deal with assessments of governors solely at election time, potentially overlooking some factors that influence assessments of governors and overstating others. The authors develop a model of public approval of gubernatorial performance and test it on a cross-section of governors. Their results suggest that only in an election year does the public hold the governor responsible for having presided over tax increases. Similarly, only in an election period does a strong institutional power base result in higher approval ratings for governors. Outside of the campaign context, neither tax increases nor institutional power makes a dent in governors' job ratings.

Grassroots Involvement in Interest Group Decision Making

Christine L. Day - University of New Orleans

Interest groups' increased use of centrally managed mass communications technologies has reduced opportunities for social networking among group members. This study examines the relationship between organizational democracy, or rank-and-file participation in decision-making, and two indicators of social network opportunities: existence of local chapters and extent of direct mail usage. Control variables include membership incentives, organizational resources, group age and size, and competition with other groups for members. Multivariate analyses of two interest group survey data sets, using ordinal logit, indicate that social network organizations are no more likely to involve their members in decision-making than are centralized direct-mail organizations. The variables that are significantly related to grassroots involvement in organizational decision making include purposive and solidary membership incentives as well as some organizational resources, size, and age. Implications for further study of organizational democracy are discussed.

An Agent and Two Principals: U.S. Court of Appeals Responses to Employment Division, Department of Human Resources v. Smith and the Religious Freedom Restoration Act

James C. Brent - San Jose State University

Principal-agent theory recently has been used to analyze responses of the U.S. Court of Appeals to search and seizure decisions of the Supreme Court. This article examines what happens when agents (the U.S. Court of Appeals) are faced with the dilemma of following the conflicting commands of two principals (the Supreme Court and Congress). These conflicting commands take the form of the Court's decision in Employment Division, Department of Human Resources v. Smith (1990) and the congressional attempt to overturn this decision in the Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA) of 1993. The results of the multivariate analysis demonstrate that even after controlling for legal (case fact) and political variables, the U.S.Court of Appeals became more hostile to religious free exercise claims after Smith and became more receptive to such claims after the passage of RFRA. The lower courts appear willing to act as the agents of both the Supreme Court and Congress.

July 1999, Vol. 27, No. 3

Racial Diversity, Voter Turnout, and Mobilizing Institutions in the United States

Kim Quaile Hill and Jan E. Leighley - Texas A&M University

Race is often identified as uniquely defining and influencing electoral processes in the United States. However, little empirical research has investigated the consequences of racial diversity for levels of voter turnout or for the nature of mobilizing institutions. On the basis of historical analyses of U.S. politics, we hypothesize that greater racial diversity is associated with lower levels of voter mobilization, weaker mobilizing institutions, and higher barriers to voter participation. Cross-sectional models for the 1950s, the 1980s, and the 1990s are tested with ordinary least squares regression techniques, using states as the unit of analysis. We find that racial diversity is a potent negative predictor of turnout levels, in each time period and in non-Southern, as well as Southern, states and that it has an especially strong relationship in presidential elections. Racial diversity is also associated nationwide with weak state and national mobilizing forces, and more difficult voter registration requirements.

Did Motor-Voter Work?

Michael D. Martinez and David Hill - University of Florida

This article examines the impact of the 1993 National Voter Registration Act on turnout and the composition of state electorates in the 1996 elections. We address two questions regarding the effect of this new law: (a) Did the law increase overall turnout, and (b) did the law decrease the class and racial inequity in the U.S. electorate? Using turnout and exit poll data from the states, we find that the new law had no significant impact on overall state-level turnout, and it appeared to slightly increase the class and racial inequality in state electorates.

Partisan Bias in U.S. Congressional Elections, 1952-1996: Why the Senate is Usually More Republican Than the House of Representatives

Thomas L. Brunell - Binghamton University (SUNY)

The Democratic Party held a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives from 1952 to 1994. During the same period, however, they did not demonstrate the same level of success in the Senate. What explains these differing levels of success in the two chambers of Congress? Here, I explore the contribution of partisan bias to this discrepancy. Three separate measures of partisan bias (distributional, population, and turnout) are explained and calculated for each chamber for the elections from 1952 through 1996. These estimates of partisan bias are linked to the proportion of seats that the parties have controlled in both the House and the Senate. Results indicate that the Democrats reaped the benefits of bias in House elections (particularly turnout-related bias). Bias in the Senate, particularly distributional and population-related bias, favors the Republicans.

Fiscal Policy as a Forecasting Factor in Presidential Elections

Alfred G. Cuzan and Charles M. Bundrick - University of West Florida

This research note presents a model in which fiscal policy, measured by changes in the ratio of federal outlays to gross national product between election years, is a factor in explaining and forecasting the outcome of the past 30 presidential elections. Compared with six forecasting models assembled in a special issue of this journal in the Fall of 1996, the model performs satisfactorily. The model implies that to win reelection or to extend his party's tenure in the White House, a president should reject a policy of fiscal expansion. It is hoped that this article will stimulate students of presidential elections to add policy variables to their forecasting models.

Segregation and Black and Hispanic Group Outcomes: Policing in Large Cities

Nicholas O. Alozie - Arizona State University

This research uses Black and Hispanic employment on large-city police forces to explore the relative efficacy of two competing hypotheses on the potential effect of residential segregation on minority-group outcomes. The latent-need hypothesis postulates that Blacks and Hispanics would fare better in more segregated communities because Black and Hispanic personnel are needed to police "their" own neighborhoods. Alternatively, the discrimination hypothesis contends that, ceteris paribus, the extent of residential segregation is an indicator of community-level intolerance and expects that more segregated communities would present Blacks and Hispanics with fewer opportunities in policing. The analysis indicates that the discrimination imperative is germane for Blacks. However, residential segregation is of no significant consequence for Hispanics.

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October 1999, Vol. 27, No. 4

Contents:

Presidential Voting Across the American States

Robert A. Jackson - Washington State University

Thomas M. Carsey - University of Illinois-Chicago

In this article, we examine the variation in the importance of partisanship and ideology in structuring citizens' presidential vote choice across the United States. We use CBS/New York Times Exit Polls from 18 states in 1984 and 24 states in 1988, along with the national polls from each year. Underlying national survey-based examinations of presidential voting (e.g. those based on the ANES) is the assumption that presidential voting "looks and works the same" across the United States. However, our results indicate marked variation in the influence of both partisanship and ideology on presidential vote choice across state electorates. Political characteristics of state electorates (e.g. mass polarization and mass liberalism) provide some insight into these differences. Furthermore, we discover some continuity from 1984 to 1988 within states in the nature of influences on their electorates' presidential voting.

Campaign and Contextual Influences on Voter Participation in State Legislative Elections

Robert E. Hogan - Louisiana State University

Recent studies suggest that campaign mobilization factors such as candidate spending and electoral competition play a substantial role in influencing voter participation in elections. This analysis focuses on the relative influence of these campaign effects along with a variety of contextual features on district-level turnout in state legislative elections. Models testing a variety of variables across seven states in 1994 point to the overwhelming influence of socioeconomic and political context, with campaign mobilization effects contributing a much smaller degree of explanatory power. While some mobilization factors (such as campaign spending) have the potential to exert a strong impact on turnout, factors beyond the control of candidate campaigns are responsible for much of the observed variation in turnout across state legislative districts.

Running on Their Own: The Electoral Success (and Failure) of Appointed U.S. Senators

James D. King - University of Wyoming

Senators who first reach office by gubernatorial appointment are successful at the polls at half the rate of incumbents in general. Outcomes of elections featuring appointed senators are affected by the incumbent's voting record in the Senate, the divisiveness of the primary, state partisanship, the size of the state, national political conditions, and the quality of the challenger. This last factor is the key to understanding the anomaly, as appointed senators face higher quality challengers than do senators who first gain office through the electoral process.

Maximizing "Minimal Effects:" The Impact of Early Primary Season Debates on Voter Preferences

Samuel J. Best - University of Notre Dame

Clark Hubbard - University of New Hampshire

Previous research on televised presidential debates tends to minimize their effectiveness as agents of mass attitude change, suggesting that they serve merely to reinforce existing preferences. Much of this work, though, stems from analyses of vote decisions during the closing stages of the general election campaign when preferences are anchored for 9 months of prior information. Using an experimental design that controls for debate viewership, we assess the impact of an early primary season debate-when voters possess limited information and potentially malleable political attitudes-on a broad range of political predispositions. The results demonstrate that debates possess the capacity to influence viewers' campaign engagement, issue appraisals, and candidate evaluations, suggesting that the impact of debates may be dramatically understated.

Survey Bias on the Front Porch: Are All Subjects Interviewed Equally?

David L. Leal - State University of New York at Buffalo

Frederick M. Hess - University of Virginia

We examine whether survey interviewers are biased in their views of certain classes of respondents, thereby introducing unobserved bias into survey results. There has been a great deal of previous research on how racial and gender dynamics affect the responses given by respondents during face-to-face surveys. In this article, we turn this issue around and ask whether human interaction affects how the interviewer views the respondents, and if so, how this may systematically bias surveys. If interviewers are biased, this may impede their ability to conduct interviews in a consistent, nonjudgmental, and unbiased manner. Using three surveys that required the interviewer to evaluate how informed and intelligent the respondents appeared, we found that interviewers were more likely to evaluate respondents of lower socioeconomic status as less informed and less intelligent, even after controlling for objective levels of political information. There is also evidence that Blacks may be negatively evaluated.

The Politics of Dissents and Concurrences on the U.S. Supreme Court

Paul J. Wahlbeck - George Washington University

James F. Spriggs, II - University of California at Davis

Forrest Maltzman - George Washington University

Why do justices author or join separate opinions? Most attempts to address the dynamics of concurrence and dissent focus on aggregate patterns across time or courts. In contrast, we explain why an individual justice chooses to author or join a separate opinion. We argue that separate opinions result from justices' pursuit of their policy preferences within both strategic and institutional constraints. Using data from the Burger Court (1969 to 1985 terms), we estimate a multinomial logit model to test the influence of these factors on justices' decisions to join or author a regular concurrence, a special concurrence, or a dissent, as opposed to joining the majority opinion. Our results show that this choice reflects the justices' conditional pursuit of their policy preferences. We also disentangle the decision to join or author separate opinions, and we find that the latter decision is also influenced by the time remaining in the Court's term.

January 2000, Vol. 28, No.1

Contents:

The Demise of the Two Presidencies

Richard Fleisher-Fordham University

Jon R. Bond-Texas A&M University

Glen S. Krutz-Arizona State University

Stephen Hanna-Texas A&M University

Presidential-congressional relations scholars have long debated whether the president is more successful on foreign policy than on domestic policy (Wildavsky, 1966). The debate has focused on differential success rates between foreign and domestic policy and whether the gap has narrowed over time. This focus, however, neglects an important dimension of Wildavsky's argument. Wildavsky also argued that presidents should dominate Congress in foreign policy . Hence, the thesis predicts high levels of success on foreign policy as well as differences between foreign and domestic policy. Looking at the trends in success on foreign and domestic votes, we observe that whereas the difference between foreign and domestic success rates shows up consistently for minority presidents, the absolute level of support on foreign and defense issues has declined since the second Reagan administration. Analysis of opposition party base behavior reveals that foreign policy has become considerably more partisan.

Uncertainty and Candidate Personality Traits

Garrett Glasgow and R. Michael Alvarez-California Institute of Technology

Due to the high level of uncertainty in the electorate about candidate issue positions, many scholars believe that voters instead use simpler cues such as personality traits to evaluate candidates. However, information about candidate personality traits is also subject to uncertainty. Using a new direct survey measure of uncertainty included in the 1995 and 1996 National Election Studies, we examine the effect of trait opinions on candidate evaluations and test the effect that uncertainty about those opinions has on the use of traits in an evaluation. We find that uncertainty about a candidate's personality traits reduces both the use of opinions about that candidate's traits in evaluations of that candidate and the overall evaluations about that candidate.

Support for Third Parties in California

Todd Donavan-Western Washington University

Shaun Bowler-University of California, Riverside

Tammy Terrio-Western Washington University

Support for minor parties is increasing in some state elections. In this article we use survey data to model support for contemporary third party candidates in California. Our analysis indicates that voters choose minor party candidates when they are dissatisfied with major candidates and when they perceive no difference between the major parties. We also fine that these minor party candidates receive support from voters who have loyalties to the minor party, a finding that contrasts with some of the existing literature on minor party voting in U.S. national elections.

The Effect of All-Mail Elections on Voter Turnout

Priscilla L. Southwell-University of Oregon

Justin I. Burchett-Stanford University

Proponents of all-mail elections argue that this type of election facilitates participation such that elevated levels of turnout occur. The research tests this assumption by analyzing 48 statewide elections from the state of Oregon. This analysis suggests that the all-mail format is a major stimulus to voter participation, second only to the impact of a presidential contest.

Interpretation of Interaction Effects in Logit and Probit Analyses: Reconsidering the Relationship Between Registration Laws, Education, and Voter Turnout

Chi Huang-National Chung-Cheng University

Todd G. Shields-University of Arkansas

Scholars have argued that more restrictive registration laws most drastically deter the least educated citizens from political participation. Others, however, argue that the most educated, rather than the least educated, are most drastically impeded by restrictive registration requirements. These opposing conclusions have dramatically different implications concerning registration reform in the United States. In this analysis, we urge scholars to take the arguments made by Nagler more seriously, and we argue that past models have not fully considered the inherently nonlinear functional form of the logit and probit models. Using graphical displays, we show that citizens with moderate levels of education are actually those who are "hardest hit" by restrictive closing dates. Consequently, we moderate all prior conclusions and show evidence that it is neither the most nor the least educated who are "hardest hit" by early closing dates.

Who Will Survive? An Exploration of Factors Contributing to the Removal of Unethical House Members

Rebekah Herrick-Oklahoma State University

Some congressional observers fear that unethical members are too insulated from electoral defeat. To estimate the security of unethical members, this article examines the survivability of members who have been accused of unethical behavior since 1977. Although most members who have been accused can survive one election cycle, most are unable to survive two election cycles. As a way of evaluating the ethics process, this article examines which members leave. If the current system removes unethical members, then members who have been found guilty of severe offenses should be more apt to leave than others. The severity of members' offenses did affect their ability to survive, but only significantly so in the long term. The findings show that electoral security plays the dominant role in members' survivability. Other factors affecting which members leave include institutional power, media coverage, the nature of the times, and a member's age.

The Defense -Growth Nexus in the United States Revisited

Uk Heo-University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee

Despite a large volume of work on the defense-growth relationship in the United States, previous studies have failed to reach a consensus. Part of the explanation of the mixed results may be that various data sets and model designs have been employed. Thus, using an updated (1948-1996) and longer data set, I test several of the more prominent defense -growth models. This research design will eliminate sampling bias and increase reliability of findings. The results of this research design show that defense spending does not have a significant, direct impact on economic growth in the United States. Instead, nonmilitary government expenditures have significant, negative effects on economic growth.

April 2000, Vol. 28, No. 2

Contents:

Policy Balancing Models and the Split-Ticket Voter, 1972-1996

Richard Born-Vassar College

Previous examinations of the policy-balancing explanation for presidential-House split-ticket voting have been unable to sustain two of its basic propositions-that splitting should be greater for respondents located between the parties' ideological positions and for those seeing more interparty distance-when each is tested separately. Work by Garand and Lichtl, however, suggests that the between-parties expectation can be supported when both propositions are tested in the same equation. Our study demonstrates the essemtially artifactual nature of this result, produced by the strong relationship of the between-parties variable to relative party closeness, with interparty distance held constant. But 1996 stands out as the one year in which clear-cut balancing behavior was manifested by the electorate. Furthermore, some backing for a modified version of the policy-balancing idea emerges when we take into account respondent perceptions of individual candidates' ideological positions.

Political and Organizational Determinants of Bureaucratic Responsiveness

Steven J. Balla-George Washington University

This article examines the responsiveness of the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) to contacts initiated by members of Congress, interest groups, and private citizens. I develop and test hypotheses regarding the importance of internal bureaucratic factors (e.g. workload) and external political forces (e.g. contractor characteristics). Although previous research, which focuses on urban service bureaucracies, indicates that procedurally neutral rules related to agency missions are the primary predictors of responsiveness, I demonstrate that political considerations exerted substantial influence over HCFA responsiveness. For example, the agency was in some ways more responsive to congressional contacts than to contacts initiated by groups and private citizens. These results suggest that scholars of legislative-executive relations should pay more attention to contacts as these routine, ongoing encounters may affect the extent to which bureaucratic policy choices are consistent with the preferences of elected officials and their constituents.

Revisiting the Relationship Between Secret Ballots and Turnout: A New Test of Two Legal-Institutional Theories

Jac C. Heckelman-Wake Forest University

Two theories within the legal-institutional framework concerning the Australian ballot system's effect on voter turnout are analyzed. The vote market hypothesis assumes secret ballots were designed to end the buying and selling of votes. The secrecy the new ballot provided discouraged candidates from buying votes they could no longer verify, disproportionately affecting poor voters who would respond to this loss of payments by abstaining. Alternatively, the theory of strategic disfranchisement predicts Blacks and illiterates were specifically targeted for disfranchisement. The new ballots were expected to be more difficult for these voters to use and they would then be effectively prevented from participating in the active electorate. Although turnout decreases under either theory, the normative implications are very different. Controlling for race and illiteracy, regression analysis suggests poor voters were less likely to vote a secret ballot. A similar effect is not found for Black and illiterate voters when controlling for income. The evidence is thus more consistent with the vote market hypothesis than with a pure disfranchisement effect.

Who Contributes? Checkbook Participation, Class Biases and the Impact of Legal Reforms, 1952-1994

Todd G. Shields-University of Arkansas

Robert K. Goidel-Indiana State University

The changing demographic trends of voter turnout have been a focus of great debate. Nevertheless, voter turnout is only one avenue through which citizens participate in electoral politics. Although the number of citizens voting may have declined since the 1960s, other forms of participation, such as financial contributions, have increased in terms of the number of citizens engaging in such activity. We find that although class biases in financial contributions are great within each election, these biases demonstrate no consistent trend toward increased or decreased class biases in financial contributions. The extent to which any specific election is skewed along economic class lines results largely from the behavior of those at the highest income levels. Finally, we find little empirical support that legal reforms designed to increase the base of campaign contributions have had any significant impact on who contributes.

How Voting is Like Taking An SAT Test: An Analysis of American Voter Rolloff

Martin P. Wattenberg-University of California, Irvine

Ian McAllister-Australian National University

Anthony Salvanto-University of California, Irvine

Millions of American voters fail to complete their ballots each election year. These voters present a puzzle: After having incurred the costs of going to the polls, why do they choose not to vote on some of the items on the ballot? This paper considers voter rolloff between presidential and House races in an effort to understand the reasons why some voters abstain selectively. We consider this question by analyzing House rolloff based on aggregate data from the 1990s and national survey data from the 1980s. The results indicate that voters skip House contests not because they are lacking in education or are members of minority groups, but rather they do not have enough information to cast a vote. This finding offers new insight into how rolloff voters approach a ballot: They treat voting as if it were a test, picking out the questions that they can answer.

Break Out the Mint Juleps? Is New Hampshire the "Primary" Culprit Limiting Presidential Nomination Forecasts?

Randall E. Adkins-California University of Pennsylvania

Andrew J. Dowdle-Fayetteville State University

Previous research demonstrated the possibility of forecasting presidential nominations by using the results of public opinion polls and Federal Election Commission records regarding the money presidential candidates raise during the year prior to the election (Mayer, 1996). To improve on these results, the authors incorporate three additional variables into two OLS models. The equations include data for contests from 1976 to 1996 where the incumbent did not sit for reelection. The results of the Mayer model and Model 1, which contain information available prior to the Iowa caucus, are compared to Model 2, which includes New Hampshire primary returns. While public opinion polls and early fundraising are important components of forecasting presidential nominations, cash reserves and regional uniqueness also affect the results. The evidence indicates the New Hampshire primary is the "primary" culprit sabotaging presidential nomination forecasting models from achieving the same degree of accuracy as the general election counterparts.

Debate-Induced Opinion Change: What Matters?

Mike Yawn and Bob Beatty-Arizona State University

In this article, we focus on the extent and sources of attitude change produced by the second 1996 presidential debate. First, we test the magnitude of attitude change brought about by the 1996 debate. Next, we focus on the role of candidate status, testing whether the viewers' opinions toward the challenger are more variable than viewers' opinions toward the incumbent. Finally, we ascertain the specific aspects of each candidate's performance that spurred opinion change. Using a panel design, we interviewed a live audience and a television audience of the second presidential debate in 1996. We find that the debate did lead many viewers to alter their attitudes toward the candidates: the viewers' attitudes toward Bob Dole were more variable than their attitudes toward Bill Clinton, and stylistic concerns were more important to viewers than political considerations.

July 2000, Vol. 28, No.3

Contents:

Coalitional Maintenance: Politicians, Parties, and Organized Groups

Nolan McCarty-Columbia University

Lawrence Rothenberg-University of Rochester

Research on parties has bifurcated between studies of parties in elections and parties in the legislature. This analysis brings the theoretical insights from the study of legislative parties to bear on the role that parties play in elections. The authors apply recent theories of legislative parties to highlight the dilemmas that parties face in electing their candidates and attempting to mediate between those office-seekers and interest group contributors. The authors maintain that parties best serve the long-term interests of their candidates by rewarding those who cater to interests aligned with the party and punishing others who elicit support from opponents. This proposition is tested using data on party contributions to House incumbents during the 1995-1996 electoral cycle. The authors find that incumbents who relied more on opposition groups for funds in the 1993-1994 cycle received less funding from their party. The results provide evidence that parties play the role of intermediary between groups and politicians.

Policy Conflict and the Structure of Interest Communities: A Comparative State Analysis

Anthony J. Nownes-University of Tennessee

Drawing on data from a survey of 595 state interest representatives this article asks: Is policy conflict widespread in state interest communities or is it rare due to the isolation of interest organizations in relatively placid niches? Two contending perspectives frame the current debate on this issue. Whereas Browne maintains that balkanization characterizes interest communities, Salisbury and his colleagues suggest that many policy domains feature substantial intergroup interaction, conflict, and cooperation. In all, the data witness relatively high levels of conflict among groups and between groups and other political actors and thus confound the expectations of Browne's niche theory. Nevertheless, the data do not invalidate niche theory. Rather, they suggest that some policy domains are more likely to be characterized by niche politics than others and that the federal government provides more incentives than state governments for groups to seek niches.

All Is Not Fair: The Effects of Changing Committee Representation on Partisan Conflict in Transforming Legislatures

R. Bruce Anderson-Hastings College

This article addresses the problem of the causes of party conflict in former one-party legislatures. Some argue that as the minority party gains ground in the legislature, partisan floor conflict will rise. Yet, literature on committees and the changing status of the committee system seems to suggest that conflict is lowered in chambers where the minority party participates in committee decision making. This study is based on tests of data from a 10-year time period. The author reports that the proportion of minority party membership on committees has a direct dampening effect on the level of conflict on the floor. This analysis also finds that the effect is variable by bill type and that the overall effect on conflict is greater than the effect of chamber share in determining the level of party conflict in the chamber.

Guns in the Ballot Box: Information, Groups, and Opinion in Ballot Initiative Campaigns

Mark R. Joslyn and Donald P. Haider-Markel-University of Kansas

This article examines the extent to which a change in the information environment affected opinion of a recent gun safety ballot initiative in Washington. Through content analysis of newspaper stories and documentation of expenditures of competing interests, the authors are able to detect a discernable shift in the information environment during the final weeks of the campaign. Support for the initiative dropped appreciably concurrent with this shift. The authors are able to show that the altered information context (a) generated the greatest change among the most politically aware respondents and (b) sustained this effect within specific partisan classifications. Although previous research investigates analogous behavioral dynamics in a variety of political settings, this analysis differs in application to ballot initiative campaigns. The authors discuss the implications of their findings in terms of direct democracy campaigns and conclude that influence of competing interests are central to the nature and outcome of the election.

Competing Explanations of Split-Ticket Voting in American National Elections

Franco Mattei and John S. Howes-State University of New York at Buffalo

In this article, the authors propose an extension to Fiorina's balancing model based on voters' electoral expectations and test this extension and several implications of the theory. The authors examine the observed pattern of ticket-splitting and find it less consistent with a balancing perspective than with an alternative approach stressing separation between presidential and congressional voting. They also address the relationship between party polarization and ticket-splitting; their results indicate that the occurrence of split ballots doea not increase with polarization. A further test identifies respondents with both the sophistication and the motive to engage in balancing behavior. According to this analysis, balancing considerations influence, at most, the very small group of voters whose sophistication and electoral expectations give them the tools and the incentive to pursue balance with a split ballot. Ticket-splitting appears to result far more from incumbency and cross-pressured voters holding candidate evaluations at odds with their partisan leanings.

Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections

Jack H. Nagel-University of Pennsylvania

John E. McNulty-University of California at Berkeley

Previous studies of turnout effects in U.S. elections have reported perplexingly different results for presidential as opposed to major statewide (senatorial and gubernatorial) contests. By justifying and applying a consistent methodology, the authors find that results for both types conform to the pattern previously reported by Nagel and McNulty for senatorial and gubernatorial races. Outside the South, higher turnout helped Democratic presidential candidates from 1928 through 1964. In 1968 through 1996, however, the impact of turnout in straight two-party contests was insignificant, except in the South, where Democrats benefitted from higher turnout. In the earlier period, high turnout helped Democrats most in states where Republicans usually prevailed. Its effects became weaker or even pro-Republican in the mostly Democratic states. All of these findings uphold DeNardo's mathematical model, which provides an empirically supported theory of the partisan effects of turnout in U.S. presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections.