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Issued by: Karla Ashenhurst 414-229-4451 karlaa@uwm.edu Date: Oct. 28, 2002

UW-Milwaukee Public Opinion Survey Shows Dead Heat in Governor's Race

2-point lead by Doyle is within margin of error

MILWAUKEE - The lead held by Attorney General James Doyle over Governor Scott McCallum in the race for governor has dramatically narrowed, according to a UW-Milwaukee Public Opinion Survey. The UW-Milwaukee Center for Urban Initiatives and Research, along with the university's political science department, conducted the random survey of 505 Wisconsin residents, including 418 likely voters.

The telephone poll, conducted October 21-24 had a margin of error of +/- 5 % when based on the 418 likely voters. Thirty-eight percent responded they intend to vote for Doyle, while thirty-six percent intend to vote for McCallum. Sixteen percent of the surveyed voters were undecided. Support for Libertarian candidate Ed Thompson was eight percent. Voting choice was influenced by issues including satisfaction with the direction of the state, perceptions of the state economy, personal finances, taxes, school choice, and trust in government. (See poll results regarding these issues.)

The university conducted a similar poll in late August, two weeks prior to the primary election. That poll showed Doyle with a double-digit lead over McCallum. In comparing the results of the October poll to those of the August poll, McCallum's favorable and unfavorable ratings remained steady. Doyle, however, had a net drop of twenty-one percentage points in the favorable/unfavorable ratings. Ed Thompson was the candidate of choice of eight percent polled in both surveys.

UW-Milwaukee Political Science Professor Tom Holbrook said, "This decline in Doyle's favorable-unfavorable rating may reflect the efficacy of McCallum's relatively negative campaign, as well as recent allegations of misconduct by Doyle's campaign."

Voters go to the polls Tuesday, November 5, just one week from tomorrow. Cautioned Holbrook, "A week can be a long time in a campaign, and voters who lack excitement about the election or remain undecided could stay home on November 5, which could play a key factor in the outcome. On the other hand, if one candidate is able to mobilize that block of voters, it will play to his advantage." Holbrook is a national expert and commentator on elections.

The UW-Milwaukee Public Opinion Survey, conducted by the Center for Urban Initiatives and Research (CUIR) at UWM, is a product of an educational partnership among university faculty, staff and students. The survey was not funded or organized by any political party or organization.

For more than twenty-five years, the CUIR has provided research services to help non-profit and public organizations make informed policy choices. The UW-Milwaukee Public Opinion Survey is the university's contribution to the shaping of public policy in Wisconsin.

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UWM Telephone Poll, Oct. 21-24

"If the election for Governor were being held today and the choices were Scott McCallum, the Republican candidate, Jim Doyle, the Democratic candidate, and Ed Thompson, the Libertarian candidate, how would you vote?"

"Now I'm going to ask your opinion about several of Wisconsin's political leaders. If you haven't heard enough to have an opinion about any of these people please feel free to say so. Is your opinion of Scott McCallum favorable, undecided, not favorable or you haven't heard enough to have an opinion?"