Meteorologist's Web Site Turns Kids Into Weather Forecasters

MILWAUKEE -- An exercise that Jonathan Kahl incorporates into his large introductory classes on meteorology has now become a virtual learning "hit," turning middle- and high-school students across the nation into weather forecasters.

It began more than a year ago when Kahl, professor of atmospheric science in the Mathematics Department, created the "Virtual Weather Map Room," a compilation of some of the vast amounts of weather data available on the Internet.

With this information, predicting the weather could be a useful academic workout for both undergraduate and secondary students. Predicting is simple enough for younger kids while challenging enough for college students. After all, Kahl points out, even professional meteorologists often get the forecast wrong.

"Weather forecasting is an obvious way to apply information," Kahl says. "Because students are forming a hypothesis, it's an ideal application of the scientific method."

Kahl presented his idea at the Wisconsin Science Teachers Convention in the fall of 2000 and wrote an article about it in the National Science Teachers Association magazine in February 2001. Since then, participation has grown from 15 to more than 100 schools from all over the United States and Canada.

Using his Forecasting the Weather Using the Internet page, students make a forecast once a week for various locations in the world. Students email their individual forecasts to the teacher. The forecast must include the student's reasoning for predicting the high and low temperature for the day, and for choosing a wind speed and direction. Then, descriptions of the weather that actually occurred at each location are posted on Kahl's Web site so students can find out how accurate their predictions were.

The students' thought processes, rather than their forecasts, form the basis for their grade, he says.

"For a forecast to be considered `good,' it has to be better than `persistence,'" Kahl says. "By that I mean it has to be right more often than by history alone - what the weather has been in previous days. Unless you are able to assess the variables, forecasting requires no skill."

At New Berlin's Eisenhower High School, earth sciences teacher Laura Cerletty said her students love the exercise because it is relevant and they get nearly immediate feedback. "Last year, my students were often more accurate than the professionals," says Cerletty. "This year, they were less accurate. Maybe the TV meteorologists are practicing on Dr. Kahl's site and getting better."

Another valuable aspect of the program for teachers is that it encompasses many disciplines, not just the physical sciences. For example, wind is a useful tool for studying forces and is a direct application of Newton's second law of motion. The movement of high- and low-pressure systems offers an opportunity to examine velocity and acceleration.

"It embodies elements of math, statistics, physics, geography and chemistry, which makes it perfect for integrating into the curriculum," says Kahl. Funding for the program was provided in part by the UW System PK-16 Initiative. To register a class to use the system, contact Kahl at 414-229-3949 (email: kahl@uwm.edu) or register online at www.uwm.edu/~kahl/Forecast/register.html.

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