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Title: |
Trade, Determinants, and Causality: A Case of
Hong Kong's Exports to the United States |
| Author: |
Chou, W. L.;
Shih, Y.C. |
| Author
Affiliation: |
Chinese U, Hong
Kong |
| Source: |
International Economic Journal, Winter 1988, v. 2, no. 4, pp. 21-33 |
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Publication Date: |
Winter 1988 |
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Abstract: |
This paper examines recent development in
Hong Kong's exports to the United States. It explains the trade flows by
estimating five demand-equations for exports. Besides, vector
autoregressions are fitted to test the causal relationship among
exports, exchange rates and income. Our study suggests that a sustained
high growth rate of Hong Kong's exports of principal commodities to the
United States contribute to the chronical bilateral trade surplus for
Hong Kong. Variations in income and exchange rates, the major
determinants of Hong Kong's exports, "cause" exports to change as
indicated in the causality test. |
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