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Title: |
Causality between Exports, Imports and Income
in Trinidad and Tobago |
| Author: |
Howard, Michael |
| Author
Affiliation: |
U the West
Indies |
| Source: |
International Economic Journal, Winter 2002, v. 16, no. 4, pp. 97-106 |
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Publication Date: |
Winter 2002 |
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Abstract: |
This study
examines the relationship between exports, imports and income in the
economy of Trinidad and Tobago, using the methodology of Granger
causality and error correction modeling. Our results show that there is
unidirectional Granger causation from exports to income (GDP), and
bidirectional causation between exports and imports, and imports and
income. The economy of Trinidad and Tobago is a petroleum-exporting
economy where oil-export booms raise income levels, but this is usually
followed by a slump. The bivariate models should be interpreted with
caution because of the possibility of omitted variable bias. |
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