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Title: |
The Persistence of Japan's Trade Surplus |
| Author: |
Jung, Chulho;
Doroodian, Khosrow |
| Author
Affiliation: |
OH U |
| Source: |
International Economic Journal, Spring 1998, v. 12, no. 1, pp. 25-38 |
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Publication Date: |
Spring 1998 |
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Abstract: |
In this study we use time-series data to
examine the persistence of Japanese trade balance surplus and the
existence of a J-curve effect for the period 1975 (I)-1990 (I). We
extend the earlier studies by applying the Shiller lag model to the
first differences of the variables that are subject to a unit root
process. The empirical findings support the J-curve effect for Japan and
also illustrate that it takes 13 quarters before the full effect of an
exchange rate change on the trade balance is realized. The results also
suggest that in 1985 (I), for example, a once-and-for-all real currency
appreciation of 36.2 percent would have removed the average quarterly
real trade balance surplus of 2.73 trillion yen in 13 quarters, ceteris
paribus. |
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