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by John Pawasarat,
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Employment and Training Institute,
December 1997
This report examines the 42,120 jobs held by single parents who were on AFDC in Milwaukee
County in December 1995 and who are expected to work under "W-2," Wisconsin's new welfare
initiative. The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development matched all quarterly wages
paid by Wisconsin employers over five quarters (January 1996 through March 1997) with the
single parent population on AFDC (N=25,125). The data showed a total of 18,126 AFDC
caseheads had employment at least some time during the five quarters examined. All jobs held
with these employers and paying wages were analyzed. (The study did not analyze failed hires
which resulted in no wages being paid.) These DWD employment records offer a first look at
the employer experience with single parent AFDC recipients expected to work under W-2
requirements and provide baseline data on the employment experiences of the AFDC population
in 1996 and early 1997.
- A total of 4,418 employers (not including temporary employment agencies)
employed AFDC recipients during the five quarter study period in a total of 29,549 jobs. Over
half of the companies hired only one AFDC single parent during the fifteen-month period and
three-fourths hired fewer than four AFDC single parents. At the other end of the spectrum, 39
companies employed over 100 single parents (for a total of 7,991 workers). These 39 companies
accounted for 27 percent of all non-temp jobs held by single parents in the study population.
Another 62 employers hired 50-100 AFDC workers, accounting for 24 percent of the non-temp
jobs held by AFDC single parents.
Graph 1: Employers Hiring AFDC Single Parents in First Quarter 1997
- Most jobs held by AFDC single parents were concentrated in temp agencies (30
percent of total jobs), retail trade (23 percent), or hotel/auto/business/personal services (13
percent) -- those sectors most likely to have entry-level job openings but least likely to provide
sustained full-time employment.
- Temporary help agencies were used by 7,592 caseheads, or 42 percent of the AFDC
population employed sometime during the five quarters studied. For many single parents, temp
agencies provided an entry point into the labor market, but often on a part-time or short-term
basis. Job turnover was a problem even for employment with temp agencies, where 45 to 55
percent of new hires failed to post $500 in total wages.
- Non-temp jobs were heavily concentrated in a few types of businesses -- eating/drinking
establishments (15 percent of total jobs), nursing homes (11 percent), department stores (5
percent), grocery stores (4 percent) and building maintenance (4 percent).
- Seventy-
five percent of single parents who entered the labor force in Second Quarter (April-June) 1996
were no longer employed by First Quarter (January-March) 1997. New entrants to the labor
force showed poorer retention rates than workers already employed in the first quarter of the
study. Many hires failed almost immediately with only 58 percent of Quarter 2 and Quarter 3
entrants employed one quarter later. Of those single parents entering the labor force in Fourth
Quarter 1996, only 54 percent still had the same job in First Quarter 1997.
Graph 2: Percent of Jobs Retained by AFDC Single Parents After the Quarter Hired
- Four measures were used to track unsuccessful employment episodes. Nine
percent of jobs held in 1996 with non-temp companies failed to pay $100 in total wages over the
five quarters studied, 28 percent paid less than $500 in wages, 41 percent paid less than $1,000
in total wages, and 65 percent failed to continue into 1997. Failed employment events were
highest in retail trade and auto, hotel, business and personal services.
- Only 14
percent of jobs acquired by single parents in 1996 paid full-time wages (at least $2,500) in First
Quarter 1997. Jobs held by workers with schooling beyond high school were twice as likely to
continue full-time than jobs held by parents with less than 12 years schooling.
Graph 3: Percent of 1996 Job Starts Paying Full-Time Wages in First Quarter 1997
- Most jobs paying family supporting wages (at least $4,000 per quarter, or
poverty level for a family of four) for two consecutive quarters were held by individuals with
12 years of schooling (49 percent) or more than 12 years of schooling (32 percent). These jobs
were concentrated in health (particularly with hospitals and nursing homes), manufacturing,
education and social services. In Fourth Quarter 1996, 818 jobs (only 4 percent of the total
19,074 jobs held) resulted in employment that paid family-supporting wages for two consecutive
quarters.
Graph 4: Jobs Paying Family-Supporting Wages to AFDC Single Parents in Fourth Quarter 1996
- Wages for jobs with both temporary employment agencies and non-temp
employers were examined to track the movement of workers from "temp" employment into non-
temp jobs with steady wages. Only 5 percent of the single parents who used temp agencies had
First Quarter 1997 non-temp earnings of $4,000 or more and only 15 percent posted non-temp
earnings of at least $2,500 (full-time employment at minimum wage) in First Quarter 1997.
Most of the 465 single parents who moved into what could be considered a successful "temp to
perm" pattern had the characteristics of the population most likely to leave AFDC with or
without a temp job placement, i.e., 69 percent had 12 or more years of schooling and 57 percent
were already employed in First Quarter 1996 at the start of the study period.
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